What Buyers in Greater Phoenix Need to Know About the 7-Year Affordability Forecast

A lot of buyers right now are in a holding pattern, watching the market and waiting for prices to come down. 

Oxford Economics just put a number on how long that wait might actually be: seven years.

That projection comes from one of the most widely cited economic research firms in the world. If you’re in or around Scottadale and wondering whether to keep waiting or start moving, you’ll want to understand what that timeline really means for you.

This is a look at the math behind the “wait and see” strategy, so you can make a decision based on the full picture.

What “Housing Affordability” Actually Means

When people say they’re waiting for housing to become “more affordable,” they usually mean they’re waiting for prices to drop. 

But home prices are just one piece of the housing affordability puzzle.

• Home prices: What sellers are asking and what buyers are paying
• Mortgage rates: Rates determine how much of your monthly payment goes to interest
• Income: How much purchasing power buyers actually have

All three have to move in the right direction for affordability to improve in a meaningful way. 

Prices could flatten while rates stay elevated, and a buyer’s monthly payment barely budges. Or rates could drop while prices climb in response to increased demand, and the monthly cost ends up roughly the same.

Oxford Economics’ seven-year projection accounts for how all these factors interact, and what it would realistically take for housing costs to come back in line with what a typical household can afford to spend.

What Oxford Economics Is Projecting

Oxford Economics’ research, published in June 2026, projects that housing affordability won’t see meaningful recovery for at least seven years. That puts a realistic improvement timeline somewhere around 2033.

For context, Oxford Economics is a global research firm whose economic modeling is used by governments and major financial institutions worldwide. When they put a seven-year number on the affordability recovery, it’s not a guess.

The projection reflects what it would take to close the gap between where home prices and borrowing costs are now and where they’d need to be for a typical buyer to comfortably afford a median-priced home. 

Getting there would require meaningful price corrections alongside sustained rate decreases and real income growth, and researchers don’t expect those conditions to align anytime soon.

Here is where the Scottsdale market stands as of May 2026 for single-family homes:

• Median list price: $1,225,000
• Average home sale price: $1,658,254
• Median home sale price: $1,075,000
• Average days on market: 89
• Median days on market: 49
• List price to sale price ratio: 95.8%

The Real Cost of Waiting

Waiting feels like a neutral decision. But every year a buyer stays on the sidelines, two things are working against them.

1. Equity – Every month a homeowner makes a mortgage payment, a portion of that payment goes toward building ownership in an asset. 
2. Rent – Rent payments don’t build equity, and rent prices generally haven’t been trending down. The average renter is paying more today than they were two years ago.

Many buyers are counting on rates to drop. But if mortgage rates fall significantly before 2033, more buyers will come off the sidelines, demand will rise, and, in a market with limited inventory, prices tend to follow. 

The monthly payment might not drop as much as buyers hope, even with a lower rate, if the purchase price has climbed to meet demand.

The “waiting for affordability to improve” strategy has real costs attached to it, and it’s good to know those costs before making a decision. 

You will need the full picture of housing costs for the rent vs. buy question in Scottsdale, which means taking a closer look not just at the local numbers but at your unique financial situation and the costs of becoming a homeowner in 2026. 

If no one has walked you through the numbers to help you understand the most financially beneficial decision for your household this year, that’s what we are here for.  

Make the Decision with the Full Picture

The Oxford Economics projection is a data point that belongs in the conversation when you’re thinking through your timeline. 

Seven years is a long time to wait for conditions that may or may not arrive on schedule.

If you’re in or around Scottsdale and you’ve been holding off, we’d encourage you to look at what the next few years realistically look like with the full numbers in front of you. Reach out and we would be happy to walk you through that.